2460 Users by Aug 18 2006

naw · Post by **naw** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:07 pm

By my reckoning, theres over 2460 users of PB now which really surprised me - I'd assumed the number was rather less than that.

Based on the Member List which shows 30 users on each of 82 screens. Presumably not all users register (though I guess at least at least 90% do)

New Users by year (based on PBs Member List):
1 in 2002 (guess who)
773 in 2003
640 in 2004
612 in 2005
570 in 2006 (actually 406 by 18th Aug 2006 I'm increasing by 40% to pro-rata users to the end of the 2006)

Theres not really enough years to estimate continued growth, but I'd guess PB would reach *critical mass* by 2012 with approximately 4500 users.

So perhaps anyone out there who's sitting on the fence wondering if PB is a stayer or not should place their order. 10 years life for a language is pretty darn good.

rsts · Post by **rsts** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:19 pm

Nice interpolation and I sincerely hope it's around that long (and longer), but the real question can't be answered from the forums membership (which is where I assume you're getting the 2400+ number from?) - which doesn't generate any revenue - but rather from licenses sold, which does.

Many of the 'demo users' (or even "pirates") will register on the forums and never end up purchasing a license. Fred is the one who knows what relationship there is between forum membership and licenses.

btw - what is the critical mass figure of 4500?

cheers

srod · Post by **srod** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:30 pm

2460 is not a massive number though!

I think there are literally thousands of more potential users of PB, many of whom perhaps haven't even discovered it yet! Some of this, I reckon, comes down to the outdated Purebasic website which really doesn't do the language justice anymore.

For example, a lot of potential users might be put off by a perceived lack of documentation, text books etc. Materials to learn from, particularly when languages such as VB come with a whole closet full of learning materials.

I reckon that Kale's recently published book should be featured on the site as well as more applications written in PB - such as Karbon's kBilling application to name but one.

Still, it's an old chestnut this one!

Kale · Post by **Kale** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:33 pm

IIRC Fred stated about a year or so ago that there were 5000+ users.

Flype · Post by **Flype** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:35 pm

and what about users of the french forum and the german forum ?

english: ~2450 users
german : ~1600 users
french : ~570 users

of course, there's double or triple registred users...

Flype · Post by **Flype** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:36 pm

Kale wrote:IIRC Fred stated about a year or so ago that there were 5000+ users.

interessant.

srod · Post by **srod** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:38 pm

Ah, good point!

5000 is a much healthier figure.

naw · Post by **naw** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:46 pm

Well the 4500 number (actually 4349) isnt very scientific. I rounded the number off so that it didnt appear more scientific than it is (a stupid person might think I have *inside-knowledge* - which I dont).

Really, you need at least 5 years to start to model a trend like this. Its based on the difference between the number of registrations from 2004/2005 and 2005/2006. I also had to pro-rata the 2006 figures.

I didnt bother using the 2002 & 2003 figures since a lot of users registered on the 1st day of the WWW site, so clearly there was a BIG number of early adopters who who'd probably been involved since 2002.

Overall the number of new users year on year appear to be falling slightly (640in 2004, 612 in 2005, 570 in 2006) though the userbase is still growing very healthily.

In reality as more users adopt PB, Word Of Mouth (the most effective form of advertising) will increasingly affect the number of new users.

Given the very positive attitude of PB users, Word Of Mouth should have a very positive effect. So like I said, my estimates are very much *worst-case* - but still IMO this worst case is actually pretty good.

Registrations difference from year
this year previous year
1 - 2002
773 732 2003
640 133 2004
612 28 2005
570 42 2006
514 56 2007
444 70 2008
360 84 2009
262 98 2010
150 112 2011
24 126 2012

Trond · Post by **Trond** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:56 pm

naw wrote:Word Of Mouth

Is there any other words?

(Ah, body language!)

naw · Post by **naw** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:05 pm

Hm, I hadnt considered the French & German Forums - that was a little remiss...

Code: Select all

	    UK	 DE	  FR	 TOT
2003	773	472	170	1415
2004	640	390	141	1171
2005	612	373	135	1120
2006	570	348	125	1043
2007	514	314	113	941
2008	444	271	98	 813
2009	360	220	79	 659
2010	262	160	58	 480
2011	150	92	 33	 275
2012	24	 15	  5    44

That makes a total of 7961 users by 2012!!!

If Kale is right that there were over 5000 users by last year, then perhaps this is more realistic:

Code: Select all

	    UK	 DE	 FR	 TOT
2003	1044  637	230	1910
2004	864	527	190	1581
2005	826	504	182	1512
2006	770	470	169	1408
2007	694	424	153	1270
2008	599	366	132	1098
2009	486	297	107	890
2010	354	216	78	 648
2011	203	124	45	 371
2012	32	 20	  7    59

- which makes the number by 2012 to be about 10747 users - now thats impressive, which at $99 / licence makes Fred a Millionaire (in US$ anyway) - Congratulations Fred, what are you going to spend it all on?

Post by **freak** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:05 pm

> I didnt bother using the 2002 & 2003 figures since a lot of users registered on the 1st day of the WWW site

That is because this is not the first PureBasic forum. When we switched the forum software,
everybody had to re-register. Not everybody did so btw. The old forum had more users than
the new one used to have at first.

DarkDragon · Post by **DarkDragon** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:12 pm

Flype wrote:
Kale wrote:IIRC Fred stated about a year or so ago that there were 5000+ users.
interessant.

interesting.

That is because this is not the first PureBasic forum. When we switched the forum software,
everybody had to re-register. Not everybody did so btw. The old forum had more users than
the new one used to have at first.

There was only one forum IIRC. There were no german or french forums, it was a international forum. And I would like to have this old forum back.

Kale · Post by **Kale** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:14 pm

DarkDragon wrote:There was only one forum IIRC. There were no german or french forums, it was a international forum. And I would like to have this old forum back.

Nah, because people would only be able to read a third of it, making it confusing.

naw · Post by **naw** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:14 pm

Trond wrote:
naw wrote:Word Of Mouth
Is there any other words?

(Ah, body language!)

Sure - Word of Mouth means recommendations between friends as opposed to Words in advertisements / Junk Mail / TV etc...

I run a swing dance class and 40% of our newbies find out about it from their friends and about 50% search for Swing Dance classes on the Net and find us...

We tried advertising in local papers - it was expensive and ineffective. We got 2 new people for a £500 Ad.

Kale · Post by **Kale** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:16 pm

freak wrote:> I didnt bother using the 2002 & 2003 figures since a lot of users registered on the 1st day of the WWW site

That is because this is not the first PureBasic forum. When we switched the forum software,
everybody had to re-register. Not everybody did so btw. The old forum had more users than
the new one used to have at first.

Also many people who purchase PB don't use any forums. Wierd but true.